The newspapers are reporting that the UK is on the verge of food shortages. It’s a topic covered by the National Emergency Briefing that we think should be watched by every UK citizen.
The UK has experienced four consecutive heat waves and three prolonged dry periods. Rainfall in July was just 4.4mm, one of the lowest levels on record and the hot dry and windy conditions have provided the perfect conditions for wildfires to spread (BBC).
The Independent headlines this week say that farmers are warning we are ten days away from food shortages if there is no rain. They quoted Paul Tompkins, National Farmers Union deputy president, who said: “Parts of the country, particularly in the east and south, have seen exceptionally low rainfall, creating real challenges for farm businesses. For many arable farmers, this could be another difficult and expensive harvest after extreme weather in both 2024 and 2025 which saw both drought and flood.”
Food security
Food security affects everyone – a point highlighted by Professor Paul Behrens at the beginning of his talk to the National Emergency Briefing. The science shows there is increasing pressure on food security from the effects of climate change.
Drought, floods, wildfires and heat extremes are all increasing. Where once they used to be every 16 years, now they are more often. Estimates show that at a 1.5C increase in temperature, disasters in the world’s breadbaskets might occur every three years. At a 2C increase, disastrous harvests might happen every second year. UK farmers have had three of the five worst harvests in the last decade. 80% of them say it is affecting their ability to make a living.
It is projected that one third of arable land will be unsuitable for agriculture by the end of the century. The UK is vulnerable, because it imports 46% of food. Foods like olive oil, beef, cacao and coffee have already been impacted. And 25% of our imported food comes from the Mediterranean area, who have also experienced heat waves and wildfires this year. In the UK, even if we manage to get by with some short term limits, food prices will increase.
“When families can’t afford to feed their children, societies break down”
40% of experts say it is possible within a decade, 80% within 50 years.
Our current food system drives greenhouse gas emissions, habitat loss, pollutes our water, pollutes our air, pollutes our freshwater systems, leads to antimicrobial resistance, and potentially, new pandemics.
How can we avoid food shortages?
To change this we need to change our diet, reduce food waste, improve production, and increase adaptation. Plant based diets are the most important change we need to make. Animals use 85% of total agricultural land – this is “unsustainable”. We can still eat some meat and dairy, ‘just far less of it’.
“If we don’t lead this change on the front foot, we will be forced into this change anyway as food shocks intensify and as animals are hit harder by climate change than crops.”
But it also presents an opportunity. Plant based diets are a win-win. They reduce agricultural emissions by 60%, provide carbon storage, help us meet climate and nature targets, increase flood resilience, diversify industry (forestry, bioplastics), and increase agricultural income. They provide us with cleaner water and air. They improve our mental and physical health, improve productivity, and save on health costs. More importantly they improve our food security.
But they will require a change in mindset. And it must be supplemented by other changes, for example a move away from just-in-time supply chains and to food storage, to avoid food shortages. The National Food Strategy is a good start. We must make a choice now, for the future of our health and the planet.